647
FXUS65 KVEF 140448
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA.
* AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND
12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES AND ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS UNDERWAY NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING IN LAS VEGAS INDICATED MOST MOISTURE ABOVE
600 MB ALONG WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF DCAPE. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS SHOW PERSISTENT STORM FORMATION PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ENCOURAGES STORM FORMATION. OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL
FAVOR STORM FORMATION ALONG HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA AS WELL. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THESE STORMS
WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, LITTLE RAINFALL WILL REACH
THE SURFACE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. DRY LIGHTNING
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADS TO THE WEST
TOMORROW AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA BEFORE CONDITIONS
DRY OUT BY MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISE NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-JUNE.
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AROUND THE MOJAVE DESERT DUE TO HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE RELIEF FROM WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT COOLING OR HYDRATION,
ESPECIALLY THOSE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS. TEMPERATURES MAY START TO
DECREASE AGAIN AS THE RIDGE TRACKS EAST AND HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06-08Z THIS EVENING DUE TO A OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 17Z
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFFECTING MAINLY
THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA CORRIDORS, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY
OF ANYTHING OCCURRING WITHIN 50SM OF THE AIRPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL
EXCEED 100F FROM 18Z THROUGH 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH 08Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS OVER MOST TAF SITES LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING KDAG, WHERE WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL, WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP SUNDAY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEVADA WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...GORELOW
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