957
FXUS65 KVEF 140935
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
235 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
* AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND
12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, BUT WILL HAVE
MORE WESTWARD SPREAD IN COMPARISON. THE 06Z LAS VEGAS SOUNDING SHOWS
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WITH AROUND 0.75
INCHES OF PWAT AND A PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V, INDICATING THAT DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS (35 TO 45 MPH) WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE DAY. IN GENERAL, PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND (VIRGA), THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (15-
30%) EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF ESMERALDA, NYE, LINCOLN, AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES,
THOUGH WITH 0.75-1.00 INCHES OF PWAT AND THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC
LIFT, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION ON ANY AREA MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON MONDAY AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
ELEVATED HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, AS
DESERT VALLEYS EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4). LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY, MOAPA VALLEY, COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MORONGO VALLEY,
AND DEATH VALLEY CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S,
WHICH WILL EXACERBATE HEAT ILLNESS-RELATED SYMPTOMS IN THOSE WITHOUT
PROPER COOLING. LATE-WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE TO OVER 10KT WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 15KT AFTER SUNRISE.
LATER AFTER 18Z, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE AGAIN.
GUSTS TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL END
AROUND SUNSET BUT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. DISTANT THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN A
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OUTFLOW THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE
VALLEY AFTER 00Z, IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 8KT
AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 18Z THROUGH 04Z. FEW
TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THEN
CLEAR OUT AFTER SUNSET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WEST WINDS AT 10-15KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT KDAG. ELSEWHERE, WINDS UNDER
10KT ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, GUSTING 15-25KT IN MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT AT
KDAG WHERE WEST WINDS WILL GUST 25-30KT LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND LIGHT
WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA, AND PORTIONS OF THE
SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING AND SUDDEN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR IMPACTS TO TAF TERMINALS BEING AT KBIH. ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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