104
FXUS65 KVEF 141711
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1011 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
* AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND
12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TODAY'S CONVECTION WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, BUT WILL HAVE
MORE WESTWARD SPREAD IN COMPARISON. THE 06Z LAS VEGAS SOUNDING SHOWS
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND 500 MB WITH AROUND 0.75
INCHES OF PWAT AND A PRONOUNCED INVERTED-V, INDICATING THAT DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS (35 TO 45 MPH) WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE DAY. IN GENERAL, PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY
EVAPORATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE GROUND (VIRGA), THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND EVEN SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (15-
30%) EXIST OVER THE EASTERN SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF ESMERALDA, NYE, LINCOLN, AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES,
THOUGH WITH 0.75-1.00 INCHES OF PWAT AND THE HELP OF OROGRAPHIC
LIFT, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT CONVECTION ON ANY AREA MOUNTAINS.
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ON MONDAY AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
ELEVATED HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, AS
DESERT VALLEYS EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4). LOCATIONS SUCH AS THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY, MOAPA VALLEY, COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, MORONGO VALLEY,
AND DEATH VALLEY CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S,
WHICH WILL EXACERBATE HEAT ILLNESS-RELATED SYMPTOMS IN THOSE WITHOUT
PROPER COOLING. LATE-WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND WIND GUSTS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EACH AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS LIKELY
(80%). WINDS WANE AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY
MORNING. SOUTHWEST BREEZES POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN. AT WORST, WINDS WOULD
BE SIMILAR MAGNITUDE TO TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW
MID-LEVEL CUMULUS. TEMPS TO EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z TODAY
AND TOMORROW.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
15-25 KNOTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED OVER THE
SIERRA, SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. CLOUD BASES
AROUND 10KFT WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY. WINDS AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...WOODS
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
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