137
FXUS65 KVEF 142258
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
358 PM PDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY.
* AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND
12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF CONVECTION TODAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN THE REGION. ONE KEY DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND EASTERN
SIERRA. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND FAR EASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT ASSISTS IN STORM FORMATION. PWAT VALUES
HAVE INCREASED TO 0.84 INCH ON THIS MORNING'S 12Z LAS VEGAS
SOUNDING, ABOUT 0.20 INCH HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 12Z SOUNDING
ALSO HAS A DISTINCT INVERTED-V PATTERN AND DCAPE OF AROUND 2000
J/KG, SIGNS THAT STORMS WILL HAVE HIGH BASES AND THAT GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HITS
THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. A QUICK 0.1 INCH OF
LIQUID RAIN MAY REACH THE GROUND UNDER A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS,
AS SEEN IN YESTERDAY'S STORMS. CONVECTION WILL BE FAR MORE ISOLATED
TOMORROW AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES REMAINING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
REGION AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN
VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 100S TO 110S, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT IS
DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT SUFFICIENT COOLING OR HYDRATION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, REACHING NEAR AVERAGE VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WANING AFTER SUNSET.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM DISTANT STORMS LATE
TONIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 06Z-09Z AS THE MOST LIKELY ARRIVAL
TIME, THOUGH THE CHANCES FOR ACTUALLY REACHING THE TERMINAL WITH ANY
REAL MOMENTUM (10+ KNOTS) IS ONLY AROUND 10%. LIGHT WINDS MONDAY
MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES RETURNING IN THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A
FEW MID-LEVEL CUMULUS. TEMPS TO EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z
TODAY AND MONDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 KNOTS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ANTICIPATED OVER THE SIERRA,
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. CLOUD BASES AROUND
10KFT WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY. WINDS AND SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WANE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT
WINDS MONDAY MORNING GIVE WAY TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON,
BUT LIGHTER SPEEDS THAN TODAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...WOODS
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