824
FXUS65 KVEF 150451
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 PM PDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TODAY.
* AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND
12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS PEAKING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF CONVECTION TODAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN THE REGION. ONE KEY DIFFERENCE FOR TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER CALIFORNIA
AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND EASTERN
SIERRA. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CHANCES (20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND FAR EASTERN
LINCOLN COUNTY. MOST CONVECTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT ASSISTS IN STORM FORMATION. PWAT VALUES
HAVE INCREASED TO 0.84 INCH ON THIS MORNING'S 12Z LAS VEGAS
SOUNDING, ABOUT 0.20 INCH HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE 12Z SOUNDING
ALSO HAS A DISTINCT INVERTED-V PATTERN AND DCAPE OF AROUND 2000
J/KG, SIGNS THAT STORMS WILL HAVE HIGH BASES AND THAT GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUTFLOW WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HITS
THE GROUND DUE TO DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. A QUICK 0.1 INCH OF
LIQUID RAIN MAY REACH THE GROUND UNDER A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS,
AS SEEN IN YESTERDAY'S STORMS. CONVECTION WILL BE FAR MORE ISOLATED
TOMORROW AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES REMAINING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
REGION AND HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL MAINTAIN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES PEAK ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN
VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 100S TO 110S, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT IS
DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT SUFFICIENT COOLING OR HYDRATION.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, REACHING NEAR AVERAGE VALUES BY THE
WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...ELEVATED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 8KT. LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 8KT LATE MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 10-15KT AROUND 21Z.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET, DROPPING BELOW 8KT AGAIN BY 09Z MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 18Z THROUGH 04Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WEST WINDS AT 10-15KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT KDAG. ELSEWHERE, WINDS UNDER
10KT ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 20KT IN MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
AT KDAG WHERE WEST WINDS WILL GUST 25KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA AND THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN ARIZONA MONDAY
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY STORMS COULD
PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND SUDDEN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...NICKERSON
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page