023
FXUS65 KVEF 151915
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1215 PM PDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HEAT GRADUALLY BUILDS THROUGH MID-WEEK AS MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED
INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS.
* TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES AND SOUTHWEST BREEZES
INCREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUBTLE 500MB HEIGHT RISES AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY. THIS MORNING'S 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT
DECREASE OF ~0.25", SUPPORTING MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE RETREATING SOUTHWARD. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN AREAS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF LAS VEGAS TODAY.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.
ON TUESDAY, ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTH OF I-40. ELSEWHERE, DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RUN 6-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL AS THEY PEAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK. WE'RE GETTING TO THE TIME OF YEAR WHERE THE HEAT
POSES A THREAT TO ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING/HYDRATION, NOT
JUST THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT, SO BE SURE TO TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS.
AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC AND
DISMANTLING THE RIDGE. WHILE THIS OCCURS, TEMPERATURES DROP TO
SEASONABLE VALUES AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. AT THE MOMENT,
GENERALLY EXPECTING WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH, WHICH MAY CAUSE
SOME BOATING IMPACTS AND RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE A PUSH OF SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KT AROUND 21Z. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, DROPPING BELOW 8KT AGAIN BY 09Z NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 18Z THROUGH 04Z. VFR CONDITIONS WITH
FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON,
OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WEST WINDS AT 10-15KT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT KDAG. ELSEWHERE, WINDS UNDER
10KT ARE EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 20KT IN MOST LOCATIONS, EXCEPT
AT KDAG WHERE WEST WINDS WILL GUST 25KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL
PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA AND THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN ARIZONA
DURING THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANY
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND SUDDEN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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