812
FXUS65 KVEF 031755
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1050 AM PDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS, BREEZY AFTERNOONS, AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 HPA RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SEEMINGLY EVER-PRESENT TROUGH THAT HAS LARGELY LIMITED OUR
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST WEEK HAS WEAKENED FURTHER DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF A WESTWARD-BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
NEXT WEEK, YIELDING A CONTINUATION OF OUR STEADY WARMING TREND. THIS
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON
BREEZES TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINTAINING
HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER. CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED OVER THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, SO FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS, IN
ADDITION TO STAYING AS COOL AND HYDRATED AS POSSIBLE, ENSURE
SPECIAL CARE IS TAKEN WHEN GRILLING OR USING SAFE-AND-SANE
FIREWORKS, AS ANY SPARK WILL BE A RISK FOR WILDFIRE. THE FORECAST
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK REMAINS DRY, HOWEVER LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INFLUX OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEK
AND BEYOND, SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORMAL DAILY WIND PATTERN EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FOR HARRY REID WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
A MORE CONSISTENT SE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD SET UP OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS; HOWEVER BASED ON TRENDS THIS WEEK AND TODAY, WIND DIRECTIONS
MAY REMAIN FAIRLY VARIABLE ESE-SSE UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH 22Z WITH
ISOLATED GUSTS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE S AT 8-11 KTS WITH SPORADIC GUSTS 15-18 KTS.
WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, DROPPING BELOW 8KT AGAIN AFTER 03Z AND
REMAINING LIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NORMAL DAILY WIND PATTERN
LIKELY TO OCCUR AGAIN FOR THE 4TH OF JULY. VFR SKIES PERSIST WITH
PASSING FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 19Z-01Z TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE... NORMAL DAILY WIND
PATTERNS EXPECTED TODAY, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AS SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE EARLY AFTERNOON, GUSTING 15-25KT ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO TURN SOUTHERLY TODAY, REMAINING
LIGHT AND FAIRLY VARIABLE AT MANY SITES , BUT EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AT KDAG, WESTERLY TO WNW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN EXPECT INCREASING
SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO 25KT STARTING AROUND 00Z. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET WITH TYPICAL OVERNIGHT WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW-SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS.
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...CM
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