434
FXUS65 KVEF 040748
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1248 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS, BREEZY AFTERNOONS, AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS WILL ADVECT
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DESPITE WEAK MOISTURE
INCREASES AND MODEST FORCING WITH THIS WAVE, THINK THE DRY FORECAST
WILL HOLD AS LOW LEVELS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY. THE HRRR DOES SHOW
SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
MAINLY IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MOHAVE COUNTY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ON ENSEMBLES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS 10% OR LESS.
WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THOUGH, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT AS VIRGA MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS DURING PEAK FIREWORK TIMING IF
SOMETHING DID DEVELOP. AFTER THIS WEAK IMPULSE EXITS, IT WILL
DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. VERY DRY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH
MEANS FIRES COULD EASILY START AND SPREAD- ANYONE PARTICIPATING IN
RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INCLUDING COOKING
WITH CHARCOAL GRILLS, PARTICIPATING IN TARGET PRACTICE, DRAGGING
CHAINS OFF THEIR VEHICLE, AND/OR USING SAFE-AND-SANE FIREWORKS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS, INCLUDING CARRYING EXTRA WATER
TO EXTINGUISH FLAMES AS NECESSARY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-
POSITION ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHWEST US NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BRING
WARMING TEMPERATURES, PEAKING WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ARE EXPECTED, WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. LAS VEGAS, NV HAS A 50%-60%
CHANCE OF OFFICIALLY HITTING 110F FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 7 TO 9 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST WINDS (130-150
TRUE) AFTER 23Z BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 100F ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCT CLOUDS WITH BASES
GENERALLY REMAINING AOA 20KFT AGL. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z TOMORROW EVENING DUE TO FIREWORKS ALONG THE
LAS VEGAS STRIP.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 12 KNOTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KDAG, WHERE WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20KFT AGL. SLANTWISE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE
TO WILDFIRE SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT NEAR KDAG.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PLANZ
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
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