609
FXUS65 KVEF 050506
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1006 PM PDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS, BREEZY AFTERNOONS, AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO POTENTIALLY MAKE A RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACTS OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME MINOR RADAR RETURNS THIS
EVENING AND SUNDAY, BUT WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE ISN'T
REALLY MUCH HOPE FOR PRECIPITATION OTHER THAN SOME VIRGA OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS. ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF
LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA PUSHING NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON STRETCHING
FROM NORTHERN MOHAVE, THROUGH CLARK, AND INTO NYE AND ESMERALDA
COUNTIES. HIRES MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS BAND OF RADAR RETURNS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO
30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
THE ONGOING FIRES IN LINCOLN COUNTY IS THIS DOES OCCUR. IT'S
UNLIKELY, BUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. AFTER THIS WEAK IMPULSE EXITS, IT WILL DEFINITELY REMAIN DRY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY IN THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-
POSITION ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL
3 OF 4) ARE EXPECTED, WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. LAS VEGAS, NV HAS A 60%-80% CHANCE OF OFFICIALLY HITTING 110F
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ATTENTION BEGINS TO TURN SOUTH LATE NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION, THE PRIME
LOCATION FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BEGIN ADVECTING NORTHWARD. MODELS
HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS INCREASE BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH PWS BETWEEN 1.00" - 1.25" REACHING
OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT POPS
FOR PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY EARLIER SUNDAY THAN TODAY, LIKELY BETWEEN
21Z AND 23Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT TO AT TIMES
BKN HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 20KFT AGL. TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 100F ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z, WITH A PEAK NEAR
104F AROUND 00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 12
TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, WITH FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, BUT
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
NEAR KDAG.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...PLANZ
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
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