611
FXUS65 KVEF 050742
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1242 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS, BREEZY AFTERNOONS, AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* MONSOONAL PATTERN TO POTENTIALLY SET UP LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO FAR, THE
ONLY NOTABLE THING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS INCREASED
MOISTURE IN PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AREAWIDE. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND WINDS HAVE BEEN
UNRESPONSIVE. DESPITE SOME HI-RES MODELS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP AND RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS, IT WOULD BE IN LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AS
DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO GET SOMETHING TO HAPPEN. OTHERWISE,
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES, PEAKING
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
ARE EXPECTED. MAJOR HEATRISK THEN SPREAD INTO MORE VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LAS VEGAS, NV HAS A 70%-80%
CHANCE OF OFFICIALLY HITTING 110F FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR
THURSDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AT TIMES, WHICH COULD INCREASE FIRE DANGER
AT TIMES.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN THAT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS
WOULD BE A TYPICAL SET UP FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ADVENT NORTH AND
RESULT IN INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS HAVE
BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS INCREASE BEGINNING AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.00" - 1.25" MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. WHILE THIS
REMAINS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THINGS COULD CHANGE, IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS GENERAL PATTERN AND TIMING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR NUMEROUS MODEL RUNS, WHICH GIVES AT LEAST SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT IT'S NOT JUST ENSEMBLES LEANING ON CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY EARLIER SUNDAY THAN TODAY, LIKELY BETWEEN
21Z AND 23Z. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCT TO AT TIMES
BKN HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 20KFT AGL. TEMPERATURES
EXCEEDING 100F ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z AND 03Z, WITH A PEAK NEAR
104F AROUND 00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 12
TO 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT, WITH FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, BUT
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT
NEAR KDAG.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PLANZ
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