777
FXUS65 KVEF 051047
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
347 AM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRY CONDITIONS, BREEZY AFTERNOONS, AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* MONSOONAL PATTERN TO POTENTIALLY SET UP LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SO FAR, THE
ONLY NOTABLE THING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS INCREASED
MOISTURE IN PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AREAWIDE. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND WINDS HAVE BEEN
UNRESPONSIVE. DESPITE SOME HI-RES MODELS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST.
IF ANYTHING WERE TO DEVELOP AND RESULT IN VERY LIGHT RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS, IT WOULD BE IN LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AS
DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ABLE TO GET SOMETHING TO HAPPEN. OTHERWISE,
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES, PEAKING
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
ARE EXPECTED. MAJOR HEATRISK THEN SPREAD INTO MORE VALLEY
LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LAS VEGAS, NV HAS A 70%-80%
CHANCE OF OFFICIALLY HITTING 110F FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR
THURSDAY. VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS AT TIMES, WHICH COULD INCREASE FIRE DANGER
AT TIMES.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN THAT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION. THIS
WOULD BE A TYPICAL SET UP FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO ADVENT NORTH AND
RESULT IN INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MODELS HAVE
BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS INCREASE BEGINNING AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.00" - 1.25" MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF MOHAVE COUNTY. WHILE THIS
REMAINS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THINGS COULD CHANGE, IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THIS GENERAL PATTERN AND TIMING HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT FOR NUMEROUS MODEL RUNS, WHICH GIVES AT LEAST SOME
CONFIDENCE THAT IT'S NOT JUST ENSEMBLES LEANING ON CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES.
THINKING THESE WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT, BUT AS THE AFTERNOON ROLLS
AROUND, EXPECTING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE EVENING, PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TO
EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 19Z AND 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS. WINDS STRONGEST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING, WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION IS THE KDAG AREA WHERE WINDS REMAIN
LARGELY WESTERLY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE (10-25%) IN
NORTHWESTERN INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, WITH
SCATTERED-BROKEN CONDITIONS AROUND 10-12KFT. SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE
LIGHT, BUT MAY INDUCE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ELSEWHERE, DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...WOODS
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