718
FXUS65 KVEF 051937
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1237 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHT SHOWERS AND VIRGA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN.
OTHERWISE, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
INDICATIONS FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COMING TO THE REGION
THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
REMNANTS FROM THE FORMER TS DOUGLAS CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, EVIDENCED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
UNFORTUNATELY, NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT, THOUGH
HIGH-RESOLUTION CAMS CONTINUE TO PINPOINT THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES AS HAVING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE
DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ANCHORED TO TERRAIN, WITH
VIRGA AND GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOMES FROM ANYTHING THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL REGION-WIDE BY
TOMORROW, WARMING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, PEAKING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS RIDGING
STRENGTHENS AND TEMPERATURES WARM, MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MIDWEEK, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MAJOR
HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) DEVELOPING INTO THE VALLEYS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS, AFTERNOON
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING AN INFLUX OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, THOUGH THE
TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE IS PINPOINTING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 1.00 INCH AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-15. WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE, MONSOON STORM POTENTIAL THEN HINGES ON THE POSITION OF MID-
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE RATHER BROAD
AND TRANSIENT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HOWEVER,
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A FOUR CORNERS HIGH
DEVELOPING, WHICH WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR MONSOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
EAST-
SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EARLY EVENING, PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES TO EXCEED 100F BETWEEN 19Z AND 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE KDAG AREA WHERE WINDS REMAIN LARGELY WESTERLY.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE (10-25%) IN NORTHWESTERN INYO
COUNTY WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN CONDITIONS AROUND 10-12KFT. SHOWERS
LIKELY TO BE LIGHT, BUT MAY INDUCE SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND WILL
DIMINISH BY SUNSET. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED
MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...CZYZYK
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