463
FXUS65 KVEF 060406
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
908 PM PDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THIS AFTERNOON, LIGHT SHOWERS AND VIRGA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT BASIN.
OTHERWISE, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
INDICATIONS FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COMING TO THE REGION
THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
REMNANTS FROM THE FORMER TS DOUGLAS CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, EVIDENCED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
UNFORTUNATELY, NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT, THOUGH
HIGH-RESOLUTION CAMS CONTINUE TO PINPOINT THE SIERRA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES AS HAVING A 10 TO 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WAVE
DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE ANCHORED TO TERRAIN, WITH
VIRGA AND GUSTY WINDS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOMES FROM ANYTHING THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, OUR WARMING TREND CONTINUES, WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL REGION-WIDE BY
TOMORROW, WARMING TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, PEAKING THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS RIDGING
STRENGTHENS AND TEMPERATURES WARM, MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MIDWEEK, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MAJOR
HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) DEVELOPING INTO THE VALLEYS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND DRY CONDITIONS, AFTERNOON
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH DAY, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING AN INFLUX OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THAT WILL WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, THOUGH THE
TIMING REMAINS IN QUESTION. CURRENTLY, GUIDANCE IS PINPOINTING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REACHING AND EXCEEDING 1.00 INCH AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-15. WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE, MONSOON STORM POTENTIAL THEN HINGES ON THE POSITION OF MID-
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, WHICH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE RATHER BROAD
AND TRANSIENT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. HOWEVER,
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF A FOUR CORNERS HIGH
DEVELOPING, WHICH WOULD BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR MONSOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS AFTER 19Z. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL
AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 100F BETWEEN
18Z-04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KDAG WHERE SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
08Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING, WITH CLEARING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON MONDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...GORELOW
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