327
FXUS65 KVEF 060916
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
216 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW SHOWERS IN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES TODAY; OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
* HINTS AT A MONSOONAL PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP YESTERDAY IN NORTHERN INYO
COUNTY THROUGH ESMERALDA COUNTY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE HRRR HAS A SIMILAR SCENARIO
PANNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN AS DECENT MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
PEAK FORCING AND THE TERRAIN. THAT SAID, THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY, WITH INVERTED-V FORECAST HRRR SOUNDINGS AND OVER
1500 J/KG OF DCAPE, MEANING THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL
UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. THE PEAK OF THE HEATING HAS SHIFTED LATER,
LIKELY FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY NOW. LAS VEGAS, NV HAS A 75% CHANCE OF
SEEING THE FIRST 110 DEGREE DAY THROUGH THAT STRETCH. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR
HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
STARTS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUING TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO, MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO BE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. PWATS DO NOT CLIMB
UNTIL LATE WEEKEND OR MONDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON NBM ARE
ALSO NOW DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY. THE OVERALL IDEA STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK DESPITE BEING SLIGHTLY DELAYED AS ALL LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
PWATS INCREASING TO 1.00" - 1.25" SOUTH OF THE I-15 BY MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND COMMUNICATE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS AFTER 19Z. SCATTERED MID-
LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH JUST
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 100F
BETWEEN 18Z-04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
KDAG WHERE SOUTHWEST TO WEST GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN THROUGH
08Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 18Z WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 10-15
KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. SCATTERED MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS
THIS EVENING, WITH CLEARING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ON MONDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...GORELOW
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