426
FXUS65 KVEF 061137
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
437 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW SHOWERS IN INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES TODAY; OTHERWISE,
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
* HINTS AT A MONSOONAL PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN
INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP YESTERDAY IN NORTHERN INYO
COUNTY THROUGH ESMERALDA COUNTY IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE HRRR HAS A SIMILAR SCENARIO
PANNING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN AS DECENT MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
PEAK FORCING AND THE TERRAIN. THAT SAID, THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN QUITE DRY, WITH INVERTED-V FORECAST HRRR SOUNDINGS AND OVER
1500 J/KG OF DCAPE, MEANING THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL
UNDERNEATH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE AND A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. THE PEAK OF THE HEATING HAS SHIFTED LATER,
LIKELY FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY NOW. LAS VEGAS, NV HAS A 75% CHANCE OF
SEEING THE FIRST 110 DEGREE DAY THROUGH THAT STRETCH. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR
HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY COOL SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
STARTS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUING TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO, MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO BE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. PWATS DO NOT CLIMB
UNTIL LATE WEEKEND OR MONDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON NBM ARE
ALSO NOW DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY. THE OVERALL IDEA STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK DESPITE BEING SLIGHTLY DELAYED AS ALL LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
PWATS INCREASING TO 1.00" - 1.25" SOUTH OF THE I-15 BY MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO ADJUST THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND COMMUNICATE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LATE
THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL PICK UP TO BETWEEN 6 AND 10 KTS, WITH
DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY BETWEEN 140 AND 220. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS WILL PICK UP AROUND 20Z, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
OCCASIONAL SOUTHEAST GUSTS AS WINDS OSCILLATE BEFORE SETTLING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 18 AND 04Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...FOR THE LAS VEGAS AND
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS. KBIH WILL
BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 20 KTS. KDAG
WILL GUST IN THE LATE-AFTERNOON AROUND 25 KTS. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...SOULAT
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