210
FXUS65 KVEF 211738
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1038 AM PDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, THOUGH
DAILY STORM COVERAGE WILL TEND TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
* WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
WE ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA WORKING WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS WORKING AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHERN NEVADA AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. IF THESE DO HOLD TOGETHER, IT'S LIKELY THEY WILL
PRODUCE JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN AS THERE REALLY ISN'T ANY SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. BY THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS MOHAVE,
LINCOLN, CENTRAL NYE, AND NORTHERN INYO COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, BUT THESE SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE RATHER ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER WEAK. THE ONE
AREA THAT WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY WHERE DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A VORT MAX
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY. LIKE WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, THE GREATEST
CONCERNS WILL BE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING, AND
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE COAST MID-WEEK, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA WITH PWATS DROPPING CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT LIKELY WON'T COMPLETELY END
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT WILL LIKELY KEEP THEM OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT LEAST FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
A WARMING TREND EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DRYING WE
SEE AND HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THE PACIFIC TROUGH HAS ON THE
POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BUT AT THIS POINT,
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE WIDESPREAD MINOR AND
MODERATE (LEVEL 1 AND 2) HEAT RISK EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3) AND POCKETS OF EXTREME
(LEVEL 4) HEAT RISK DEVELOPING THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON A RETURN OF HIGHER IMPACT HEAT, HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION. THOSE WHO WILL BE
OUTDOORS WILL NEED TO ENSURE THEY STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE BREAKS IN
THE AIR CONDITIONING WHENEVER POSSIBLE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
INCREASE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 16 KTS AT TIMES. WIND WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AND
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD SUNSET, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME VARIABILITY
BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST 21-03Z. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IS LESS THAN 20%, BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING
SHIFTING WINDS INTO THE VALLEY. VCSH 21Z-03Z AND WILL FAVOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS, BUT BASED ON TRENDS THIS WEEK, CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
LOW OF CONVECTION NEAR THE TERMINAL. NORMAL DAILY WIND PATTERN
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100F BY 20Z AND REMAIN
ABOVE THROUGH 03Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BARRING CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SPORADIC GUSTS 15+ KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE MOST COVERAGE IN NORTHERN INYO AND MOHAVE COUNTY. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW/OUTLER
AVIATION...CZYZYK
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