371
FXUS65 KVEF 212014
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
114 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, THOUGH DAILY
STORM COVERAGE WILL TEND TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.
* WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREWN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEASTERN NV. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS INSTABILITY AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THESE AREA.
INSTEAD, THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND WESTERN INYO COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPS WARM ALOFT. HOWEVER, ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREA (EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY,
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND SIERRA) WHERE POPS REMAIN 10-30% THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM OVER THE COMING DAYS, GOING FROM NEAR-
NORMAL VALUES TO ~5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE HIGHS
AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT
FEEL RELATIVELY HUMID. HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY IS THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THANKS TO MOISTURE AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS, FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT, THERE WON'T
REALLY BE AN OPPORTUNITIES TO GET A BREAK FROM THE HEAT. HEATRISK
VALUES IN THE MOJAVE DESERT CLIMB INTO THE MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
CATEGORY WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4) HEATRISK. WHILE A FEW
LUCKY LOCATIONS MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO PROVIDE SOME
DAYTIME REPRIEVE, THE BULK OF THE MOJAVE DESERT IS GOING TO SEE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
INCREASE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 16 KTS AT TIMES. WIND WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY AND
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD SUNSET, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME VARIABILITY
BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST 21-03Z. PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL IS LESS THAN 20%, BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD POTENTIALLY BRING
SHIFTING WINDS INTO THE VALLEY. VCSH 21Z-03Z AND WILL FAVOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS, BUT BASED ON TRENDS THIS WEEK, CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
LOW OF CONVECTION NEAR THE TERMINAL. NORMAL DAILY WIND PATTERN
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT WITH WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100F BY 20Z AND REMAIN
ABOVE THROUGH 03Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BARRING CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
TODAY WITH SPORADIC GUSTS 15+ KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE MOST COVERAGE IN NORTHERN INYO AND MOHAVE COUNTY. SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10KFT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...CZYZYK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
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