788
FXUS65 KVEF 220009
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, THOUGH DAILY
STORM COVERAGE WILL TEND TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.
* WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREWN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEASTERN NV. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS INSTABILITY AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THESE AREA.
INSTEAD, THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND WESTERN INYO COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPS WARM ALOFT. HOWEVER, ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREA (EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY,
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND SIERRA) WHERE POPS REMAIN 10-30% THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM OVER THE COMING DAYS, GOING FROM NEAR-
NORMAL VALUES TO ~5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE HIGHS
AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT
FEEL RELATIVELY HUMID. HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY IS THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THANKS TO MOISTURE AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS, FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT, THERE WON'T
REALLY BE AN OPPORTUNITIES TO GET A BREAK FROM THE HEAT. HEATRISK
VALUES IN THE MOJAVE DESERT CLIMB INTO THE MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
CATEGORY WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4) HEATRISK. WHILE A FEW
LUCKY LOCATIONS MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO PROVIDE SOME
DAYTIME REPRIEVE, THE BULK OF THE MOJAVE DESERT IS GOING TO SEE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 8-10 KNOTS, BUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. AFTER 06Z, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND 8 KNOTS AND REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
LOW (<10%) PROBABILITY OF OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACTING THE TERMINAL, BUT
IF IT DOES OCCUR, IT WOULD LIKELY COME FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 100F AFTER 03Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT
IS EXPECTED TO SEE THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES IS KBIH WHERE SCATTERED
STORMS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z BEFORE
WEAKENING. OVERNIGHT, PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 10% THAT ANY TAF
SITE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS OR SHIFTING OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE,
TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, EXCEPT FOR
KDAG WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. FEW-
SCT100 SCT-BKN150 FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...GORELOW
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