807
FXUS65 KVEF 220547
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1047 PM PDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, THOUGH DAILY
STORM COVERAGE WILL TEND TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.
* WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREWN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEASTERN NV. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS INSTABILITY AND LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THESE AREA.
INSTEAD, THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND WESTERN INYO COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY AND
TEMPS WARM ALOFT. HOWEVER, ISOLATED ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREA (EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY,
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND SIERRA) WHERE POPS REMAIN 10-30% THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM OVER THE COMING DAYS, GOING FROM NEAR-
NORMAL VALUES TO ~5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE HIGHS
AREN'T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, BUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT
FEEL RELATIVELY HUMID. HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY IS THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS. THANKS TO MOISTURE AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS, FORECAST LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS A RESULT, THERE WON'T
REALLY BE AN OPPORTUNITIES TO GET A BREAK FROM THE HEAT. HEATRISK
VALUES IN THE MOJAVE DESERT CLIMB INTO THE MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4)
CATEGORY WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4) HEATRISK. WHILE A FEW
LUCKY LOCATIONS MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO PROVIDE SOME
DAYTIME REPRIEVE, THE BULK OF THE MOJAVE DESERT IS GOING TO SEE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORTHEAST TO OCCASIONAL EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT TIMES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AFTER 17Z WITH SPEEDS AROUND
7-8 KNOTS. FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100F
FROM 19Z-04Z WITH A FORECASTED HIGH OF 107F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONVECTION HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE KDAG WILL SEE GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH 10Z BEFORE
WEAKENING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. CIGS AROUND 14KFT NEAR KIFP/KEED, BUT
EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR KBIH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 12-15KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...GORELOW
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