450
FXUS65 KVEF 220731
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1231 AM PDT WED JUL 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, THOUGH DAILY
STORM COVERAGE WILL TEND TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.
* WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
THE EASTERLY WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER AS THE INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP IT FROM PUSHING ANY FURTHER WEST. IT WILL LIKELY
KEEP CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA, ALONG WITH SOUTHERN UTAH QUITE
ACTIVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE WILL SEE PWATS BEGIN TO DROP AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALONG WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SIERRA CREST, CENTRAL NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. FLASH FLOODING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT WILL
BE THE UPCOMING HEAT THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE LATE THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, BUT WILL JUMP
ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES WITH ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL PUT LAS VEGAS IN THE 110-115 DEGREE RANGE AND DEATH VALLEY
AROUND 120-125 DEGREES. THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS THE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HEATRISK VALUES IN THE MOJAVE DESERT CLIMB INTO THE MAJOR
(LEVEL 3 OF 4) CATEGORY WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME (LEVEL 4) HEATRISK.
WHILE A FEW LUCKY LOCATIONS MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM TO
PROVIDE SOME DAYTIME REPRIEVE, THE BULK OF THE MOJAVE DESERT IS
GOING TO SEE OPPRESSIVE HEAT THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE MAY
START TO SEE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH GETS SHOVED EAST BRINGING HEIGHTS DOWN A BIT.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORTHEAST TO OCCASIONAL EAST WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 08Z BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION AT TIMES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WINDS WILL FAVOR A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AFTER 17Z WITH SPEEDS AROUND
7-8 KNOTS. FEW CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT. TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100F
FROM 19Z-04Z WITH A FORECASTED HIGH OF 107F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONVECTION HAS ENDED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT WHERE KDAG WILL SEE GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS THROUGH 10Z BEFORE
WEAKENING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. CIGS AROUND 14KFT NEAR KIFP/KEED, BUT
EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR KBIH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. OTHERWISE FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 12-15KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...GORELOW
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