181
FXUS65 KVEF 241901
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1201 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, BUT DAILY
STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. BOTH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. LAS VEGAS HAS A GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF REACHING A HIGH OF 110 DEGREES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A 75 PERCENT CHANCE ON MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN 80
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF LOW TEMPERATURES OVER 90 DEGREES THROUGH
MONDAY FOR LAS VEGAS. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY - SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAT OFFER LITTLE RELIEF YIELD SWATHS OF
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DEATH
VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BRINGS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN NEVADA, SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA,
AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR HIGH
TERRAIN, INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN AND 1700 J/KG OF DCAPE ON THIS MORNING'S LAS
VEGAS SOUNDING INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
TODAY'S STORMS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DECREASES STARTING SATURDAY AS
A TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN AND FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION
POTENTIAL TO HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
PREVAILING GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE VEGAS VALLEY
AFTER 18Z, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
STORMS REMAINS LOW. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SUDDEN GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN,
AND CIGS BELOW 10KFT AGL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING, AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 100F
WELL INTO THE EVENING, WITH A PEAK READING OF 110F EXPECTED AROUND
00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS, MAINLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 12 TO 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA, AND NORTHERN
INYO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, AND CIGS BELOW 10KFT AGL. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET, WITH TYPICAL LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX FRI, JUL 24 SAT, JUL 25 SUN, JUL 26 MON, JUL 27
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD (YR)
LAS VEGAS 117(1942) 115(2018)* 116(1943) 115(2016)
BISHOP 107(2016)* 107(2016)* 108(1975) 108(2016)
NEEDLES 123(2018) 122(2018) 119(2023) 119(2018)
DAGGETT 114(2018)* 115(1975) 114(2018) 115(1995)
KINGMAN 108(2018) 108(2018)* 108(2023) 108(1934)
DESERT ROCK 109(1996)* 110(2018) 110(2018) 110(2018)
DEATH VALLEY 127(2018) 127(2018) 127(2018) 127(2018)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN SAT, JUL 25 SUN, JUL 26 MON, JUL 27 TUE, JUL 28
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD (YR)
LAS VEGAS 93(2024)* 94(2024)* 90(2018)* 91(2018)*
BISHOP 70(2013) 69(2022) 70(1951) 71(2004)
NEEDLES 97(2018) 98(2018) 96(2018) 96(2018)
DAGGETT 85(2024)* 85(2024)* 83(2016)* 83(2016)*
KINGMAN 80(1914)* 84(1914)* 81(1914)* 85(1914)
DESERT ROCK 84(2018)* 82(2024)* 83(2024)* 84(2003)
DEATH VALLEY 102(2018)* 101(1980)* 102(2006)* 101(2018)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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