939
FXUS65 KVEF 250445
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
945 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT.
* MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, BUT DAILY
STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. BOTH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. LAS VEGAS HAS A GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF REACHING A HIGH OF 110 DEGREES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A 75 PERCENT CHANCE ON MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO AN 80
PERCENT PROBABILITY OF LOW TEMPERATURES OVER 90 DEGREES THROUGH
MONDAY FOR LAS VEGAS. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY - SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAT OFFER LITTLE RELIEF YIELD SWATHS OF
MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND EXTREME
(LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DEATH
VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BRINGS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN NEVADA, SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA,
AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR HIGH
TERRAIN, INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. AN
INVERTED-V PATTERN AND 1700 J/KG OF DCAPE ON THIS MORNING'S LAS
VEGAS SOUNDING INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH
TODAY'S STORMS. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DECREASES STARTING SATURDAY AS
A TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN AND FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SETUP SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION
POTENTIAL TO HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...ALL CONVECTION HAS ENDED NEAR THE VALLEY THIS EVENING. NO
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 8KT OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SATURDAY EARLY MORNING. MUCH LIKE THE
PAST FEW DAYS, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20KT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SET UP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR SKIES WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT.
TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 19Z TO 05Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE... ISOLATED CONVECTION IN
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA WILL WANE BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. LIGHT
WINDS FOLLOWING TYPICAL OVERNIGHT PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY,
INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS 15-20KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. KDAG WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WESTERLY
GUSTS DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE OWENS VALLEY
MAY PUSH SMOKE INTO KBIH, PRODUCING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER
CIGS AT TIMES. CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED AND
LESS IMPACTFUL COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL ARIZONA. WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL TRENDS AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CIGS AT OR ABOVE 12KFT.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX FRI, JUL 24 SAT, JUL 25 SUN, JUL 26 MON, JUL 27
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD (YR)
LAS VEGAS 117(1942) 115(2018)* 116(1943) 115(2016)
BISHOP 107(2016)* 107(2016)* 108(1975) 108(2016)
NEEDLES 123(2018) 122(2018) 119(2023) 119(2018)
DAGGETT 114(2018)* 115(1975) 114(2018) 115(1995)
KINGMAN 108(2018) 108(2018)* 108(2023) 108(1934)
DESERT ROCK 109(1996)* 110(2018) 110(2018) 110(2018)
DEATH VALLEY 127(2018) 127(2018) 127(2018) 127(2018)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN SAT, JUL 25 SUN, JUL 26 MON, JUL 27 TUE, JUL 28
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD (YR)
LAS VEGAS 93(2024)* 94(2024)* 90(2018)* 91(2018)*
BISHOP 70(2013) 69(2022) 70(1951) 71(2004)
NEEDLES 97(2018) 98(2018) 96(2018) 96(2018)
DAGGETT 85(2024)* 85(2024)* 83(2016)* 83(2016)*
KINGMAN 80(1914)* 84(1914)* 81(1914)* 85(1914)
DESERT ROCK 84(2018)* 82(2024)* 83(2024)* 84(2003)
DEATH VALLEY 102(2018)* 101(1980)* 102(2006)* 101(2018)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...MELTZER
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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