999
FXUS65 KVEF 251933
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1233 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DANGEROUS TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT. HOTTER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
* CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 110S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S ACROSS MOST DESERT VALLEYS. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY - SEE
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND
WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES THAT OFFER LITTLE RELIEF YIELD LARGE
SWATHS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO EXTREME (LEVEL 4 OF 4) HEAT RISK
IN THE MOJAVE DESERT. TEMPERATURES BACK OFF A FEW DEGREES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL.
HOWEVER, PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS HEAT RETURNS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA AS THIS OCCURS.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO DRY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH A LACK OF A
LIFTING MECHANISM BESIDES DAYTIME HEATING WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MAY STILL
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AND THERE ARE LOW (10 TO
20 PERCENT) CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGH TERRAIN,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
MAINLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH LATE MORNING WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. NO CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN OR NEAR THE VEGAS VALLEY TODAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE EASTERN APPROACHES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, WITH CIGS REMAINING AOA 15KFT AGL.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES BETWEEN 19Z AND 06Z, WITH
A HIGH NEAR 114F EXPECTED AROUND 00Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT KDAG, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE WESTERLY GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS
DEVELOP AROUND 00Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KBIH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY ALSO PUSH SMOKE INTO THE AREA FROM THE FIRES
BURNING NEAR BIG PINE, REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TIMES. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, AND CIGS FALLING
BELOW 10KFT AGL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH BASES REMAINING AOA 15KFT AGL.
CLIMATE
NUMEROUS CLIMATE LOCATIONS HAVE A FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND/OR FORECAST WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
THE DAILY RECORD.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THE
YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH RECORDS
ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
MAX SAT, JUL 25 SUN, JUL 26
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR)
LAS VEGAS 115(2018)* 116(1943)
BISHOP 107(2016)* 108(1975)
NEEDLES 122(2018) 119(2023)
DAGGETT 115(1975) 114(2018)
KINGMAN 108(2018)* 108(2023)
DESERT ROCK 110(2018) 110(2018)
DEATH VALLEY 127(2018) 127(2018)
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND
THE YEAR THE RECORD WAS LAST SET. AN ASTERISK (*) DENOTES WHICH
RECORDS ARE IN JEOPARDY (WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF THE FORECAST).
WARM MIN SUN, JUL 26 MON, JUL 27 TUE, JUL 28 WED, JUL 29
RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD(YR) RECORD (YR)
LAS VEGAS 94(2024)* 90(2018)* 91(2018)* 94(2016)
BISHOP 69(2022) 70(1951) 71(2004) 67(2006)
NEEDLES 98(2018) 96(2018) 96(2018) 95(2023)
DAGGETT 85(2024)* 83(2016)* 83(2016)* 84(2016)*
KINGMAN 84(1914)* 81(1914)* 85(1914) 83(1905)
DESERT ROCK 82(2024)* 83(2024)* 84(2003) 88(1994)
DEATH VALLEY 101(1980)* 102(2006) 101(2018) 101(2016)
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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