781
FXUS65 KVEF 111718
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1018 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DAILY AFTERNOON TO EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME STORMS SPREADING INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS. STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE MID WEEK.
* THE HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING EASTWARD LEADING TO COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS TODAY
AND A SLIGHTLY EARLIER START. STORMS BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE LATE MORNING AND CHANCES SPREAD
NORTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATE NIGHT STORM ACTIVITY TO THE
EAST DOESN'T LOOK TO PUSH AS MUCH CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA,
ALLOWING FOR MORE UNIFORM HEATING AND THE ENERGY NEEDED TO START
THAT INITIAL CONVECTION. SHORTER-TERM MODELS BEGIN TO PULL BACK
STORM CHANCES INTO THE EVENING FOR ALL BUT EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO,
WHICH WILL SEE LINGERING CHANCES INTO THE EARLY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL OFFER 1229FAIRLY SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTS FOR CONVECTION,
WITH MODELS HINTING AT SLIGHTLY LONGER LASTING STORM CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN BREAKS FOR FRIDAY, WITH MUCH LOWER STORM
CHANCES THAT AFTERNOON, AND CALMER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, IT WILL ALSO CALL FOR A COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. EXPECT HEAT RISK TO DROP OFF IN
THE MID WEEK AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REDUCE BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 70S AND 80S
WHILE HIGHS REDUCE INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOMEWHAT
TRICKY AFTERNOON FORECAST TODAY IN REGARD TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL RUNS, THINKING CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY IN VEGAS, KEEPING STORMS OFF TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS MODERATE. THERE ARE A FEW
MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER CHANCES EXIST TOMORROW
(~30%). OTHERWISE, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE, WEAKENING AFTER
SUNSET. CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 12KFT. TEMPS ABOVE 100F BETWEEN 18Z
AND 03Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO WANE OVER THE COMING HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
LATER TODAY IN AREAS TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN
TO WANE AFTER SUNSET, BUT MAY START AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...WOODS
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