703
FXUS65 KVEF 112315
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
415 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DAILY AFTERNOON TO EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME STORMS SPREADING INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS. STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE MID WEEK.
* THE HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING EASTWARD LEADING TO COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.50" ACROSS LINCOLN, CLARK,
SOUTHERN NYE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. AREAS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 0.75-1.00". STORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER MOST AREAS AS WE START TO SEE
MORE INFLUENCE FROM TROUGH LOCATED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AND SOME COOLING ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AREAWIDE SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL STILL BE HIT AND MISS, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. WITH THE HIGH PWS, FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL. BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION ENDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ONLY THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEEING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, IT WILL ALSO CALL FOR A COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT RISK WILL DROP THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT SEEING
ONLY MINOR OR MODERATE READINGS. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 70S AND
80S WHILE HIGHS REDUCE INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LOW (10-
20%) CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM MAKING IT INTO THE VICINITY, BUT
CURRENTLY THINKING ACTIVITY WILL STAY 10+ MILES AWAY ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY OUTFLOW REACH THE TERMINAL, IT SHOULD BE FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SETTLE IN
OVERNIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE (~20%) OF LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY, BUT BETTER ODDS EXIST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10KFT AS AFTERNOON TEMPS
FLIRT WITH 100F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SCATTERED CONVECTION
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, AND ARIZONA STRIP. ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
ON THE HIGH TERRAIN AROUND LAS VEGAS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF
THE VALLEY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THIS EVENING,
THOUGH SOME LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, IT
MAY THROW A WRENCH INTO THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST, BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECTING GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TOMORROW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...WOODS
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