190
FXUS65 KVEF 120451
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
950 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DAILY AFTERNOON TO EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME STORMS SPREADING INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS. STORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN THE MID WEEK.
* THE HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING EASTWARD LEADING TO COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE GENERALLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS OF 1.00-1.50" ACROSS LINCOLN, CLARK,
SOUTHERN NYE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. AREAS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 0.75-1.00". STORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER MOST AREAS AS WE START TO SEE
MORE INFLUENCE FROM TROUGH LOCATED OFFSHORE. THIS WILL INCREASE
SHEAR AND SOME COOLING ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AREAWIDE SHOULD LEAD TO A BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL STILL BE HIT AND MISS, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE. WITH THE HIGH PWS, FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL. BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION ENDING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ONLY THE FAR EASTERN AREAS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEEING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, IT WILL ALSO CALL FOR A COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT RISK WILL DROP THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ALL OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT SEEING
ONLY MINOR OR MODERATE READINGS. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 70S AND
80S WHILE HIGHS REDUCE INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...DECREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE VALLEY TONIGHT,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 8KT OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. 30%-40%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY
RAIN, VISIBILITY UNDER 5SM, SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, AND CIGS BELOW
8000FT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KT
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 15KT ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
WIND FORECAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AFTER THUNDERSTORMS WANE AS WIND
DIRECTION MAY DEPEND ON AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SET UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN
CLOUDS OVER 10KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL END ACROSS THE REGION, LINGERING FOR A A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AFTER 10Z AS
DECAY STORMS FROM SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DRIFT NORTH. IN ADDITION TO
SHOWERS, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER 10KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
OVER 20KT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. WINDS WILL CALM DOWN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
TYPICAL WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ANY
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, AND
CIGS BELOW 8000FT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND
AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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