777
FXUS65 KVEF 121743
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1043 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH
AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLOODING IN MOHAVE COUNTY AZ, WITH A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FROM NOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
* DAILY AFTERNOON TO EVENING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOME STORMS SPREADING INTO ADJACENT VALLEYS.
* TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THESE
OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES DON'T LOOK VERY IMPACTFUL. THE CONTINUED
PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL OFFER SOME OF THE BEST AND MOST
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR STORMS OF THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MUCH MORE OF THOSE STORMS TO FILTER
INTO THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, SHORTER-TERM
MODELS ARE KEEPING THE STORM CHANCES LATER INTO THE NIGHT COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH THINGS NOT COMPLETELY SETTLING DOWN UNTIL
THE LATE NIGHT. THE SPREAD OF THE STORMS AND THE AMOUNT TO
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING FOR CLARK CO
NV AND MOJAVE CO AZ, WITH WPC UPGRADING THOSE AREAS TO A 15 TO 25%
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THE MORE
CONSISTENT CHANCES FOR STORMS, AS WELL AS TERRAIN AND FLOOD PRONE
ENVIRONMENTS AFFECTED, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
MOHAVE COUNTY AZ FROM NOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
A SLIGHT PATTERN SHIFT WILL REDUCE THURSDAY'S STORM CHANCES, BUT
WILL STILL OFFER A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING LOOKS LESS LIKELY, LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL STILL BE A THREAT, ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORM GUSTS AND
LIGHTNING. FRIDAY'S STORM CHANCES WILL BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY AND
LOOK TO DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. CONDITIONS STABILIZE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE TILTS BACK INTO THE REGION.
THE OVERALL COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE LATE WORK WEEK.
HEAT RISK WILL DROP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ALL OF THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT SEEING ONLY MINOR OR MODERATE
READINGS. LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 70S AND 80S WHILE HIGHS
REDUCE INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND
SLIGHTLY INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE COVERAGE THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. 30%-40% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TERMINALS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, VISIBILITY UNDER 5SM, SUDDEN
GUSTY WINDS, AND CIGS BELOW 8000FT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 12KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20KT ARE
EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS OVER 10KFT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
20-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
CIGS AND VSBYS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SHIFT IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY WILL
DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, AND CIGS BELOW 8000FT.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-
15KT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND AND CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS,
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...CZYZYK
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