293
FXUS65 KVEF 130833
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
133 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THURSDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT LOOK TO LAST INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE BACKING OFF. LOCALIZED
FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS, BUT HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
* THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED REDUCES ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO A
REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES BOTH IN SPREAD AND INTENSITY. STORM
CHANCES DISSIPATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
* AFTER CONTINUED COOLING INTO FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE STRONGER STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO POSE ANY ADDITIONAL
THREATS TONIGHT. STRONGER STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BEGIN POPPING UP
SHORTLY AFTER THE MIDDAY ALONG SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS IN
CLARK CO. THESE STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, BUT DOEN'T LOOK TO HAVE THE COVERAGE OF THE
STORM ENVIRONMENT OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY. STORMS LOOK TO BE A BIT
MORE MOBILE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT
CONCENTRATED AND PROLONGED RAINFALL THAT WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY FAVOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WITHIN THESE
STORMS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT AGAIN NOT AS WIDESPREAD.
EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO REDUCE INTO THE EVENING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OFFER A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING
AROUND SOUTHERN MOHAVE CO AZ AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO CO CA,
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING INTO THE LATE MORNING. WHILE THOSE
AREAS WILL BE THE FAVORED STORM ENVIRONMENTS, THE REST OF THE
CWA'S STORM CHANCES WILL BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY AS THE WEST WARD TILT
OF A RIDGE BEGINS TO LEAN INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
SPREAD AND STRENGTH OF STORMS AND LEAD TO CALMER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS STORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND, IT WILL ALSO START A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HIGHS AND LOWS
WITH INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND PEAK IN THE MID WEEK
AS HIGHS IN THE 100S TO 110S BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE
HEATRISK RETURNING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE AWAY AND
END IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WINDS HAVE BECOME WEST DUE TO ONGOING
CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. BY 09Z, LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS DRY WEATHER DEVELOPS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS
DAYS. 40%-50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20Z AT THE TERMINALS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN, VISIBILITY UNDER 5SM, SUDDEN GUSTY
WINDS, AND CIGS BELOW 8000FT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER
TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST THURSDAY
EVENING AFTER THUNDERSTORMS WANE AS WIND DIRECTION MAY DEPEND ON
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP THURSDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS OVER 10KFT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND WESTERN ARIZONA TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 09Z. ANY
LINGERING STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND
SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KT. AFTER CONVECTION ENDS, TYPICAL
OVERNIGHT WIND PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS INYO
SOUTHERN INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA, WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH.
ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS,
AND CIGS BELOW 8000FT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIND AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
THURSDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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