789
FXUS65 KVEF 130843
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
143 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THURSDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT LOOK TO LAST INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE BACKING OFF. LOCALIZED
FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS, BUT HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
* THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED REDUCES ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO A
REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES BOTH IN SPREAD AND INTENSITY. STORM
CHANCES DISSIPATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
* AFTER CONTINUED COOLING INTO FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE STRONGER STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO POSE ANY ADDITIONAL
THREATS TONIGHT. STRONGER STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BEGIN POPPING UP
SHORTLY AFTER THE MIDDAY ALONG SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS IN
CLARK CO. THESE STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, BUT DOEN'T LOOK TO HAVE THE COVERAGE OF THE
STORM ENVIRONMENT OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY. STORMS LOOK TO BE A BIT
MORE MOBILE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT
CONCENTRATED AND PROLONGED RAINFALL THAT WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY FAVOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WITHIN THESE
STORMS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT AGAIN NOT AS WIDESPREAD.
EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO REDUCE INTO THE EVENING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OFFER A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING
AROUND SOUTHERN MOHAVE CO AZ AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO CO CA,
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING INTO THE LATE MORNING. WHILE THOSE
AREAS WILL BE THE FAVORED STORM ENVIRONMENTS, THE REST OF THE
CWA'S STORM CHANCES WILL BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY AS THE WEST WARD TILT
OF A RIDGE BEGINS TO LEAN INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
SPREAD AND STRENGTH OF STORMS AND LEAD TO CALMER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS STORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND, IT WILL ALSO START A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HIGHS AND LOWS
WITH INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND PEAK IN THE MID WEEK
AS HIGHS IN THE 100S TO 110S BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE
HEATRISK RETURNING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY (140 TO 170 DEGREES TRUE) BY MIDDAY. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE
VALLEY THAN WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IN THE
TERMINAL AREA WILL BE 21Z TO 02Z, WITH THE LIKELY IMPACTS BEING
SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY TO UNDER 5SM,
AND CIGS DECREASING TO BELOW 8KFT AGL. LIKE WEDNESDAY EVENING,
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING,
WITH LIGHT WINDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT. AWAY FROM AREAS OF CONVECTION,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND BASES
REMAINING AOA 10KFT AGL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
100F BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY, SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE SUDDEN
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW
5SM, AND CIGS DECREASING TO BELOW 8KFT AGL. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE
MORE LIMITED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY, AN
ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES,
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT,
WITH BOTH CONVECTION AND WINDS DIMINISHING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...PLANZ
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