777
FXUS65 KVEF 131720
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1020 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THURSDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT LOOK TO LAST INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE BACKING OFF. LOCALIZED
FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS, BUT HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
* THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED REDUCES ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO A
REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES BOTH IN SPREAD AND INTENSITY. STORM
CHANCES DISSIPATE FOR THE WEEKEND.
* AFTER CONTINUED COOLING INTO FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE STRONGER STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO POSE ANY ADDITIONAL
THREATS TONIGHT. STRONGER STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BEGIN POPPING UP
SHORTLY AFTER THE MIDDAY ALONG SOME OF THE HIGHER RIDGE TOPS IN
CLARK CO. THESE STORM CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, BUT DOEN'T LOOK TO HAVE THE COVERAGE OF THE
STORM ENVIRONMENT OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY. STORMS LOOK TO BE A BIT
MORE MOBILE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WHICH WILL HELP PREVENT
CONCENTRATED AND PROLONGED RAINFALL THAT WOULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY FAVOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WITHIN THESE
STORMS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT AGAIN NOT AS WIDESPREAD.
EXPECT STORM CHANCES TO REDUCE INTO THE EVENING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO OFFER A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS IN THE MID MORNING
AROUND SOUTHERN MOHAVE CO AZ AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO CO CA,
WITH CONVECTION INCREASING INTO THE LATE MORNING. WHILE THOSE
AREAS WILL BE THE FAVORED STORM ENVIRONMENTS, THE REST OF THE
CWA'S STORM CHANCES WILL BE MUCH MORE SPOTTY AS THE WEST WARD TILT
OF A RIDGE BEGINS TO LEAN INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
SPREAD AND STRENGTH OF STORMS AND LEAD TO CALMER WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND.
THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL NOT ONLY SUPPRESS STORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND, IT WILL ALSO START A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. HIGHS AND LOWS
WITH INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY AND PEAK IN THE MID WEEK
AS HIGHS IN THE 100S TO 110S BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND MODERATE
HEATRISK RETURNING.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
EXPECTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES TO KICK IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS, BUT ONCE THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY, THE WIND FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE. MODELS ARE KEEN
ON PUSHING STORMS INTO THE VALLEY, WITH BEST CHANCES BETWEEN 20Z AND
00Z, THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE LIKELY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY SHOULD A STORM MOVE OVER THE AIRFIELD. LOWEST CLOUD BASES
BETWEEN 8-10KFT. CALMER CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME BY 06Z (IF NOT
EARLIER) AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. STORM
CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NV, NORTHWESTERN
AZ, AND INYO COUNTY. STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET, BUT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MOHAVE COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, EXPECTING LIGHT BREEZES GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTH. LOWEST CLOUD BASES 8-12KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...WOODS
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