992
FXUS65 KVEF 140754
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1254 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES REDUCE INTO THE EVENING, THEN EXIT
BY THE LATE NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN AFFECT FOR
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND MOST OF LINCOLN COUNTY.
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
* THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF ANOTHER STEADY WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
WE'RE CONTINUING TO SEE VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON THE
RADAR AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHILE LINCOLN CO
STILL HAS SOME PASSING STORMS THAT WILL WEAKEN INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. NON-IMPACTFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARRIVING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AZ WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR STORMS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FOCUSED ON
THAT SIDE OF THE STATE LINE. STORM CHANCES DO LOOK TO SPREAD WEST
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES.
EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE FEED WILL BE LIMITED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTS. LIGHTNING, AND MAYBE SOME HAIL. SHORTER-TERM HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE CONVEYER BELT OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MOHAVE CO AZ IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING. PORTIONS OF LINCOLN CO WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS SUCH, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND MOST OF LINCOLN
COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TILTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INHIBIT STORM
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY. LONGER TERM MODELS HINT AT THE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY THE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT COULD BE
DELAYED FURTHER BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KICK OFF A WARM TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING BACK INTO THE 100S AND
110S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 06Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...TYPICAL LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AFTER A DRY NIGHT, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA
INTO WESTERN ARIZONA. 40%-50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z AT
THE TERMINALS WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN, VISIBILITY UNDER
5SM, SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, AND CIGS BELOW 8000FT. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION, EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BUT WILL REMAIN
UNDER 8KT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST FRIDAY EVENING AFTER
THUNDERSTORMS WANE AS WIND DIRECTION MAY DEPEND ON AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS OVER 10KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 08Z. ANY LINGERING STORMS
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS
OVER 30 KT. AFTER CONVECTION ENDS, TYPICAL OVERNIGHT WIND PATTERNS
ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA.
LOW CHANCE THAT ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP NEAR KDAG AS WELL AS IN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THIS
TAF PACKAGE. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, SUDDEN
GUSTY WINDS, AND CIGS BELOW 8000FT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY AS TYPICAL
WIND PATTERN RETURN TO MOST LOCATIONS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEEDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS A PUSH OF NORTH
WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS OVER 10KFT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...NICKERSON
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