529
FXUS65 KVEF 140824
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
124 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES REDUCE INTO THE EVENING, THEN EXIT
BY THE LATE NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN AFFECT FOR
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND MOST OF LINCOLN COUNTY.
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
* THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF ANOTHER STEADY WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
WE'RE CONTINUING TO SEE VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON THE
RADAR AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHILE LINCOLN CO
STILL HAS SOME PASSING STORMS THAT WILL WEAKEN INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. NON-IMPACTFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARRIVING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AZ WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR STORMS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FOCUSED ON
THAT SIDE OF THE STATE LINE. STORM CHANCES DO LOOK TO SPREAD WEST
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES.
EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE FEED WILL BE LIMITED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTS. LIGHTNING, AND MAYBE SOME HAIL. SHORTER-TERM HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE CONVEYER BELT OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MOHAVE CO AZ IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING. PORTIONS OF LINCOLN CO WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS SUCH, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND MOST OF LINCOLN
COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TILTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INHIBIT STORM
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY. LONGER TERM MODELS HINT AT THE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY THE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT COULD BE
DELAYED FURTHER BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KICK OFF A WARM TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING BACK INTO THE 100S AND
110S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT,
VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS (080 TO 120 DEGREES TRUE) DEVELOP BY MIDDAY. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IN THE TERMINAL AREA
WILL BE 20Z TO 01Z, WITH THE LIKELY IMPACTS BEING SUDDEN GUSTY
WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY TO UNDER 5SM, AND CIGS
DECREASING TO BELOW 8KFT AGL. THERE IS ALSO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ENDING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. AWAY FROM AREAS OF
CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AND
BASES REMAINING AOA 10KFT AGL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 100F ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 100F THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 5SM, AND CIGS
DECREASING TO BELOW 8KFT AGL. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MORE LIMITED
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY, AN ISOLATED STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH CONVECTION AND WINDS DIMINISHING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...PLANZ
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