817
FXUS65 KVEF 141738
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1038 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY LASTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WITH
ANOTHER BATCH OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES REDUCE INTO THE EVENING, THEN EXIT
BY THE LATE NIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN AFFECT FOR
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND MOST OF LINCOLN COUNTY.
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
* THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF ANOTHER STEADY WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
WE'RE CONTINUING TO SEE VERY LIGHT RETURNS ON THE
RADAR AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHILE LINCOLN CO
STILL HAS SOME PASSING STORMS THAT WILL WEAKEN INTO THE LATE
NIGHT. NON-IMPACTFUL SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARRIVING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AZ WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR STORMS AS THE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FOCUSED ON
THAT SIDE OF THE STATE LINE. STORM CHANCES DO LOOK TO SPREAD WEST
INTO THE MID AFTERNOON OFFERING MORE WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES.
EVEN THOUGH THE MOISTURE FEED WILL BE LIMITED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN ALONG WITH STRONG
GUSTS. LIGHTNING, AND MAYBE SOME HAIL. SHORTER-TERM HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE CONVEYER BELT OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MOHAVE CO AZ IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING. PORTIONS OF LINCOLN CO WILL ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. AS SUCH, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND MOST OF LINCOLN
COUNTY THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TILTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INHIBIT STORM
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY. LONGER TERM MODELS HINT AT THE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST BY THE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT COULD BE
DELAYED FURTHER BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KICK OFF A WARM TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING BACK INTO THE 100S AND
110S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, INCREASING IN
STRENGTH AS AFTERNOON MIXING KICKS IN. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AROUND THE VALLEY AS EARLY AS 19-20Z EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DIRECT IMPACTS IN THE TERMINAL AREA WILL BE 20Z TO 23Z, WITH THE
LIKELY IMPACTS BEING SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO UNDER 5SM, AND CIGS BRIEFLY DECREASING TO BELOW 8KFT
AGL. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY AND ERRATIC WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AS A NORTHEAST WIND PUSH FROM DYING CONVECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z, WILL WATCH HOW STORMS EVOLVE TODAY AND UPDATE
THE FORECAST AS NEEDED, BUT FOR NOW HAVE ADDED NE WINDS BEGINNING AT
00Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. AWAY FROM AREAS
OF CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
AND BASES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10KFT AGL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 100F ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 100F THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE SUDDEN
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW
5SM, AND CIGS DECREASING TO BELOW 8KFT AGL. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM
23Z-03Z AT BOTH KEED AND KIFP TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY DURING THAT TIMEFRAME WITH ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND
SPEEDS EXPECTED. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT NORTHERLY FLOW
MAY SET UP WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AS STORMS DIE
AND SEND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE NORTH, SO HAVE KEPT THAT IN THE
RESPECTIVE TAFS. AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP.
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST AT BOTH KDAG AND
KBIH WITH CIGS REMAINING MAINLY CLEAR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH CONVECTION AND WINDS
DIMINISHING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...MOORE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page