663
FXUS65 KVEF 142121
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
220 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MAINLY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
LINCOLN, CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN AFFECT FOR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND MOST OF
LINCOLN COUNTY.
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
* THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF ANOTHER STEADY WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LIKELY TODAY ACROSS MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING LINCOLN, CLARK AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREAT, BUT MORE
ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WHERE WE SEE THE BEST SHEAR AND
UPPER DYNAMICS. WITH PWATS STILL OVER AN INCH, FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE TRAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
AND INYO COUNTY SHOULD SHOULD NOT SEE ANY STORMS AS DRIER AIR HAS
WORKED INTO THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
MOISTURE WILL STILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CLARK, MOHAVE, AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR
NUMBERS AND UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD ACROSS CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TILTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INHIBIT STORM
CHANCES BY SUNDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED STORMS ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY.
LONGER TERM MODELS HINT AT THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST
BY THE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED FURTHER BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KICK OFF A WARM TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING BACK INTO THE 100S AND
110S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT E TO SE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, INCREASING IN
STRENGTH AS AFTERNOON MIXING KICKS IN. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION
AROUND THE VALLEY AS EARLY AS 19-20Z EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DIRECT IMPACTS IN THE TERMINAL AREA WILL BE 20Z TO 23Z, WITH THE
LIKELY IMPACTS BEING SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO UNDER 5SM, AND CIGS BRIEFLY DECREASING TO BELOW 8KFT
AGL. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-23Z TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY AND ERRATIC WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AS A NORTHEAST WIND PUSH FROM DYING CONVECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z, WILL WATCH HOW STORMS EVOLVE TODAY AND UPDATE
THE FORECAST AS NEEDED, BUT FOR NOW HAVE ADDED NE WINDS BEGINNING AT
00Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT. AWAY FROM AREAS
OF CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
AND BASES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10KFT AGL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW 100F ONCE AGAIN TODAY AND REMAIN BELOW 100F THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE SUDDEN
GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW
5SM, AND CIGS DECREASING TO BELOW 8KFT AGL. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM
23Z-03Z AT BOTH KEED AND KIFP TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY DURING THAT TIMEFRAME WITH ERRATIC WIND DIRECTIONS AND
SPEEDS EXPECTED. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT NORTHERLY FLOW
MAY SET UP WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AS STORMS DIE
AND SEND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE NORTH, SO HAVE KEPT THAT IN THE
RESPECTIVE TAFS. AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP.
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS EXPECTED FURTHER WEST AT BOTH KDAG AND
KBIH WITH CIGS REMAINING MAINLY CLEAR. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH CONVECTION AND WINDS
DIMINISHING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...MOORE
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