911
FXUS65 KVEF 150015
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
515 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MAINLY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
LINCOLN, CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN AFFECT FOR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND MOST OF
LINCOLN COUNTY.
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
* THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF ANOTHER STEADY WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LIKELY TODAY ACROSS MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING LINCOLN, CLARK AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREAT, BUT MORE
ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WHERE WE SEE THE BEST SHEAR AND
UPPER DYNAMICS. WITH PWATS STILL OVER AN INCH, FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE TRAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
AND INYO COUNTY SHOULD SHOULD NOT SEE ANY STORMS AS DRIER AIR HAS
WORKED INTO THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
MOISTURE WILL STILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CLARK, MOHAVE, AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR
NUMBERS AND UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD ACROSS CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TILTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INHIBIT STORM
CHANCES BY SUNDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED STORMS ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY.
LONGER TERM MODELS HINT AT THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST
BY THE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED FURTHER BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KICK OFF A WARM TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING BACK INTO THE 100S AND
110S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
AROUND SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL, BUT THE THREAT
WILL EXIST AT LEAST THROUGH 04Z BEFORE STORMS DISSIPATE. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES, EXPECT EAST WINDS AROUND 12-22 KNOTS
THROUGH 03Z BEFORE DISSIPATING TO LESS THEN 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS OCCURRING
IN THE VALLEY. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
100F THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ALONG WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO 45 MPH. HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT AS STORMS SEND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO
THE SOUTH. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR KIFP,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAT STORMS WILL REACH KEED. OUTSIDE OF
ANY THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN
10 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH WESTERLY GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT KDAG.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...GORELOW
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