773
FXUS65 KVEF 150445
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
945 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MAINLY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS
LINCOLN, CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN AFFECT FOR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND MOST OF
LINCOLN COUNTY.
* MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK.
* THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF ANOTHER STEADY WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY LIKELY TODAY ACROSS MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING LINCOLN, CLARK AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREAT, BUT MORE
ORGANIZED AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES WHERE WE SEE THE BEST SHEAR AND
UPPER DYNAMICS. WITH PWATS STILL OVER AN INCH, FLASH FLOODING WILL
ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE TRAINING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY, BUT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY
AND INYO COUNTY SHOULD SHOULD NOT SEE ANY STORMS AS DRIER AIR HAS
WORKED INTO THE REGION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
MOISTURE WILL STILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CLARK, MOHAVE, AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES SATURDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS SHEAR
NUMBERS AND UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK GOOD ACROSS CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE TILTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INHIBIT STORM
CHANCES BY SUNDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED STORMS ON SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY.
LONGER TERM MODELS HINT AT THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO PUSH EAST
BY THE NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THAT COULD BE DELAYED FURTHER BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO KICK OFF A WARM TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING BACK INTO THE 100S AND
110S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND 08Z. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL IMPACT THE PEACH SPRING CORRIDOR WHERE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH 08Z. OVERNIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 10-15KFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP SATURDAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS OCCURRING IN THE VALLEY. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100F THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH 08Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING, THIS INCLUDES THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES
ALONG WITH KIFP. CIGS BETWEEN 8-10KFT ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDAG WHERE GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z. KBIH WILL SEE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP SATURDAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...GORELOW
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