146
FXUS65 KVEF 150705
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1205 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN, CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK DEVELOPING BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT WAS SEEN FRIDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST
ARIZONA, AND THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST RESULTS IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST NUDGES INTO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS TODAY WILL
BE ACROSS CLARK, MOHAVE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, WITH ACTIVITY
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS. WHILE LOCALIZED POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE FLASH FLOOD RISK SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED GIVEN THE EXPECTED REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE AND
MOISTURE LEVELS. BY SUNDAY, STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING THE REGION DRY. SOME LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES
INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL FLOW, BUT SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
BY SUNDAY, AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 100S IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
AND NEAR 110F IN SOME OF THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
READINGS IN LAS VEGAS REACHING THE MID-100S (105F TO 108F) AND THE
LOWER DESERT VALLEYS REACHING THE MID-110S. HEATRISK VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IN SOME AREAS BY MIDWEEK, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 5) BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IF WE
ARE ABLE TO GET A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND 08Z. THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL IMPACT THE PEACH SPRING CORRIDOR WHERE
STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING REMAIN. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS, BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH 08Z. OVERNIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 10-15KFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP SATURDAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF STORMS OCCURRING IN THE VALLEY. ANY STORM
COULD PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100F THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH 08Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING, THIS INCLUDES THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES
ALONG WITH KIFP. CIGS BETWEEN 8-10KFT ALONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
FOR MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDAG WHERE GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08Z. KBIH WILL SEE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP SATURDAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ
AVIATION...GORELOW
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