967
FXUS65 KVEF 151020 RRA
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
320 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN, CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK DEVELOPING BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT WAS SEEN FRIDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST
ARIZONA, AND THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST RESULTS IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST NUDGES INTO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS TODAY WILL
BE ACROSS CLARK, MOHAVE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, WITH ACTIVITY
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS. WHILE LOCALIZED POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE FLASH FLOOD RISK SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED GIVEN THE EXPECTED REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE AND
MOISTURE LEVELS. BY SUNDAY, STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING THE REGION DRY. SOME LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES
INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL FLOW, BUT SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
BY SUNDAY, AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 100S IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
AND NEAR 110F IN SOME OF THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
READINGS IN LAS VEGAS REACHING THE MID-100S (105F TO 108F) AND THE
LOWER DESERT VALLEYS REACHING THE MID-110S. HEATRISK VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IN SOME AREAS BY MIDWEEK, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 5) BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IF WE
ARE ABLE TO GET A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS (070 TO 110 DEGREES TRUE) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE TURNING A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST (090 TO 120
DEGREES TRUE) BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KNOTS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR DIRECT IMPACTS IN THE TERMINAL AREA WILL BE 21Z TO 01Z, WITH THE
LIKELY IMPACTS BEING SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO UNDER 5SM, AND CIGS DECREASING TO BELOW 8KFT AGL. A
FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING, BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD END
BY 04Z. MORE TYPICAL LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT.
AWAY FROM AREAS OF CONVECTION, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SCT
TO BKN CLOUDS AND BASES REMAINING AOA 10KFT AGL. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 100F ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
BELOW 5SM, AND CIGS DECREASING TO BELOW 8KFT AGL. WHILE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TODAY, A FEW STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOME OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN MOHAVE COUNTY. AWAY FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES,
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY,
WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY MID-AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH BOTH CONVECTION AND WINDS
DIMINISHING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ
AVIATION...PLANZ
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