763
FXUS65 KVEF 151726
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1026 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN, CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK DEVELOPING BY
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT WAS SEEN FRIDAY. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST
ARIZONA, AND THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS A TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST RESULTS IN DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE RIDGE TO THE
EAST NUDGES INTO THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS TODAY WILL
BE ACROSS CLARK, MOHAVE, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, WITH ACTIVITY
FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS. WHILE LOCALIZED POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE FLASH FLOOD RISK SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED GIVEN THE EXPECTED REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE AND
MOISTURE LEVELS. BY SUNDAY, STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER PEAKS AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE
HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING THE REGION DRY. SOME LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES
INDICATE THE RIDGE COULD SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR THE RETURN OF MONSOONAL FLOW, BUT SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE.
BY SUNDAY, AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 100S IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
AND NEAR 110F IN SOME OF THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
READINGS IN LAS VEGAS REACHING THE MID-100S (105F TO 108F) AND THE
LOWER DESERT VALLEYS REACHING THE MID-110S. HEATRISK VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IN SOME AREAS BY MIDWEEK, WITH
ISOLATED AREAS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 5) BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IF WE
ARE ABLE TO GET A RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK,
TEMPERATURES MAY BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PICKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. LIKELY
IMPACTS INCLUDE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND CEILINGS DOWN TO 8KFT AGL. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
WINDS FAVOR A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TRACK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA, PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT IN SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, AND
ALONG HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY, AND CEILINGS BELOW 8KFT AGL. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KIFP. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ
AVIATION...MELTZER
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