252
FXUS65 KVEF 151846
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1146 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN, CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
* TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH AREAS OF
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY, DEATH VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY AND A GRADUAL DRYING OUT DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK. THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WESTERN
CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, AND CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES
FOR THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY. THIS MORNINGS 18Z VEF SOUNDING SHOWS
A TREND TOWARDS LESS INSTABILITY TODAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING OF 500MB TEMPS, AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ABOVE 600MB.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS ALSO WEAKENED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO, BUT REMAINS ELEVATED FOR MID-AUGUST, WITH ABOUT 20-30
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. THESE SUBTLE CHANGES SHOULD RESULT IN A
MODEST DECREASE IN HAIL RISK AND OVERALL STORM COVERAGE, BUT
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL WANE FURTHER ON SUNDAY, SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SOME LOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AZ/NM BEFORE
EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/UTAH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE HEATRISK ACROSS THE REGION AND A
PAUSE IN THE MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN
PREVALENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WARM BUT MODERATING
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS, A RETURN OF 110+ TEMPS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DEATH VALLEY.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE HINTS A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY RETURN - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PICKS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL WILL BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z. LIKELY
IMPACTS INCLUDE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
REDUCED VISIBILITY, AND CEILINGS DOWN TO 8KFT AGL. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
WINDS FAVOR A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
MOVE THROUGH THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES TODAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TRACK TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEVADA, PARTS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT IN SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, AND
ALONG HIGH TERRAIN IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY, AND CEILINGS BELOW 8KFT AGL. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS LAST INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AT KIFP. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...MELTZER
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