620
FXUS65 KVEF 160507
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1007 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN, CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
* TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH AREAS OF
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY, DEATH VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
RETURN SUNDAY AND A GRADUAL DRYING OUT DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK. THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR WESTERN
CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, AND CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES
FOR THE MOST ROBUST ACTIVITY. THIS MORNINGS 18Z VEF SOUNDING SHOWS
A TREND TOWARDS LESS INSTABILITY TODAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING OF 500MB TEMPS, AND DRIER AIR ALOFT ABOVE 600MB.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS ALSO WEAKENED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO, BUT REMAINS ELEVATED FOR MID-AUGUST, WITH ABOUT 20-30
KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR. THESE SUBTLE CHANGES SHOULD RESULT IN A
MODEST DECREASE IN HAIL RISK AND OVERALL STORM COVERAGE, BUT
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL WANE FURTHER ON SUNDAY, SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN WILL BECOME ENTRAINED IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SOME LOW SHOWER/SPRINKLE CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS AZ/NM BEFORE
EXPANDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN NV/UTAH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASE HEATRISK ACROSS THE REGION AND A
PAUSE IN THE MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN
PREVALENT THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WARM BUT MODERATING
AFTERNOON HIGHS SLIGHTLY. NONETHELESS, A RETURN OF 110+ TEMPS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DEATH VALLEY.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THERE ARE HINTS A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY RETURN - THOUGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND LARGELY FOLLOW TYPICAL, DAILY
PATTERNS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THREW IN A VCSH FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CASE THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF STORMS DRIFT INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN VALLEY, BUT CURRENTLY THINKING CONVECTION WILL STAY
SOUTHWEST OF TOWN. SOUTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
THE TERMINAL (~25% CHANCE), BUT PROBABLY STAYS BELOW 25 KNOTS.
CONVECTION WANES IS FORECAST TO WANE IN THE EVENING WITH CALM AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BASES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10KFT. HIGH
TEMPERATURE MAY APPROACH 100F AROUND 22Z-01Z, BUT ANVIL SHADING WILL
LIKELY KEEP US IN THE UPPER 90S.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION RESUMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS CLARK, EASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO, AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTIES. CURRENTLY THINKING
ACTIVITY WILL STAY OUT OF THE LAS VEGAS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
DECAYING REMNANTS FROM STORMS SOUTHWEST OF TOWN MAKING IT INTO THE
VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS LIKELY NEAR ANY STORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE IN THE EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND OWENS VALLEY WHERE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS ARE FORECAST. CLOUD BASES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...WOODS
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
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