262
FXUS65 KVEF 161941
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1241 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA, SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
* TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH
AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK EXPANDING BY MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, DEATH VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS TODAY, WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 500 HPA RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK PERTURBATION
AND FETCH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORM CHANCES
DESPITE DECREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK, AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING
ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS DEVELOP AND TRAIN
OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER TODAY, A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
WESTWARD OVER THE REGION, YIELDING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WHILE THE WARMING TREND HAS ALREADY STARTED TODAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL
YIELD A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CLIMBING TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY, WITH
POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) CONCURRENTLY DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DEATH VALLEY. THESE
AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND MIDWEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA,
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH ENSEMBLES INDICATING POSSIBLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS WE SEE ANOTHER UPTICK IN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO FAR EASTERN AREAS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, THUS ALL ARE ENCOURAGED TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY THIS WEEK, AND CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY
DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
CHANCE (10-20%) FOR VCSH NEAR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON SO
MAINTAINED VCSH IN THE TAF FOR NOW. ASIDE FROM ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY WITH BASES REMAINING AOA
10KFT AGL. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL APPROACH 100F BETWEEN 22Z AND
01Z.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CLARK, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTIES.
WHILE THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY OUT OF THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY, A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS FROM STORMS SOUTHWEST OF
TOWN MAY MAKE IT INTO THE VALLEY. BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS NEAR ANY STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES,
WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND OWENS VALLEY, WHERE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ARE
FORECAST. CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN AOA 10KFT AGL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...OUTLER
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