243
FXUS65 KVEF 170452
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
952 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
NEVADA, SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
* TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH
AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK EXPANDING BY MIDWEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, DEATH VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS TODAY, WITH LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 500 HPA RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING A WEAK PERTURBATION
AND FETCH OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN MOVING OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORM CHANCES
DESPITE DECREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK, AND
MOHAVE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING
ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS DEVELOP AND TRAIN
OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER TODAY, A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED AS BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
WESTWARD OVER THE REGION, YIELDING INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
WHILE THE WARMING TREND HAS ALREADY STARTED TODAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED INCREASING THICKNESSES WILL
YIELD A QUICK RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CLIMBING TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY, WITH
POCKETS OF MAJOR HEATRISK (LEVEL 3 OF 4) CONCURRENTLY DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND DEATH VALLEY. THESE
AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND MIDWEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA,
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH ENSEMBLES INDICATING POSSIBLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND AS WE SEE ANOTHER UPTICK IN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WHILE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO FAR EASTERN AREAS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, DETAILS ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, THUS ALL ARE ENCOURAGED TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY THIS WEEK, AND CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECAST.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FEW TO SCT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE AREA WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 100 DEGREES OR GREATER BETWEEN 19Z MONDAY
MORNING AND 04Z IN THE EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS FOLLOW TYPICAL
DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR
MOST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE KBIH WHERE
GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON, AND KDAG WHERE
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST TONIGHT AND RETURN TOMORROW EVENING.
FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE AREA, WITH BASES AT OR
ABOVE 10KFT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...MELTZER
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page