912
FXUS65 KVEF 011722
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1022 AM PDT TUE SEPT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RELATIVELY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE KARINA MAY GET PULLED INTO THIS FLOW
PATTERN, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD STAY ALOFT, RESULTING IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND
FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ELEVATED WINDS AT 850 MB WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON MOST DAYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THAT HAS
A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
HIGH AMOUNTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS MODELS SEEM TO BE
GRAVITATING TOWARDS TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. ONE SOLUTION TAKES THE
SYSTEM WEST INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, WHICH WOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON WEATHER IN THE FORECAST AREA BESIDES INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE
OTHER SOLUTION TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOULD
THIS SOLUTION PREVAIL, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN THE REALM
OF POSSIBILITY. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
SYSTEM IN THIS SOLUTION, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LASTING INTO
MONDAY SHOULD IT OCCUR. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS MOST
MEMBERS INDICATING THE WESTERLY TRACK, WHILE THE GEFS ENSEMBLE HAS A
WIDER RANGE OF OUTCOMES, WITH MEMBERS SPLIT BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS.
AGAIN, PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT 10-15
KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IF GUSTS PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR NOW KEEPING WINDS AROUND 12 KTS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT
IN THE TAF. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP BY MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN OF 20-30 KTS. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW 100F
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-
20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WINDS MAY
REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AT MOST SITES, THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT, SO KEEPING HIGHER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THAN A
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. NO CLOUD OR VIS ISSUES EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...CZYZYK
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