157
FXUS65 KVEF 012058
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
158 PM PDT TUE SEPT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRIER, COOLER, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM MARIE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24-
HOURS AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND. DEW POINTS IN THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 60S, BUT HAVE SINCE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S OR LESS. OTHER THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTED ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE ARIZONA AND
UTAH BORDERS. MOISTURE DOES REMAIN OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE PWATS
ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 1.00-1.50". WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTY
AND WITH MODEST INSTABILITY WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS REALLY
DROP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA LEADING TO GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE TROUGH, WE WILL SEEING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALONG WITH DAILY AFTERNOON BREEZES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS
GENERALLY 20-30 MPH, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS LINCOLN, CLARK,
MOHAVE, AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 30-40 MPH, ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR WIND
ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LAS VEGAS LIKELY NOT REACHING 100 DEGREES
AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE DEAL
WITH THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
STORM MARIE. BOTH THE EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRACK THE CENTER
OF MARIE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THIS
POINT, THE MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND
WITH MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-15 SEEING PWATS RANGING FROM 1.50-2.00".
CURRENTLY, NBM POPS ARE GENERALLY 20-50% FOR MOST AREAS FOR NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT THAT CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE DUE TO THE OVERALL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE FINAL TRACK OF MARIE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-30
KTS THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AT 10-15
KTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWER CONFIDENCE IF GUSTS PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR NOW KEEPING WINDS AROUND 12 KTS AFTER 03Z TONIGHT
IN THE TAF. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP BY MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS AGAIN OF 20-30 KTS. TEMPS REMAIN BELOW 100F
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-
20 KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT WINDS MAY
REMAIN ELEVATED AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AT MOST SITES, THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT, SO KEEPING HIGHER WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THAN A
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. NO CLOUD OR VIS ISSUES EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...CZYZYK
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