968
FXUS65 KVEF 020447
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
947 PM PDT TUE SEPT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRIER, COOLER, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM MARIE.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS BEEN WORKING THROUGH THE CWA OVER THE PAST 24-
HOURS AS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INLAND. DEW POINTS IN THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY THIS MORNING WERE IN THE 60S, BUT HAVE SINCE
DROPPED INTO THE 40S OR LESS. OTHER THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS, WE ARE
NOT EXPECTED ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE ARIZONA AND
UTAH BORDERS. MOISTURE DOES REMAIN OVER MOHAVE COUNTY WHERE PWATS
ARE CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 1.00-1.50". WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COUNTY
AND WITH MODEST INSTABILITY WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS REALLY
DROP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA LEADING TO GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE TROUGH, WE WILL SEEING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALONG WITH DAILY AFTERNOON BREEZES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS
GENERALLY 20-30 MPH, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS LINCOLN, CLARK,
MOHAVE, AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 30-40 MPH, ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR WIND
ADVISORIES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALSO BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LAS VEGAS LIKELY NOT REACHING 100 DEGREES
AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE DEAL
WITH THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE FROM NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
STORM MARIE. BOTH THE EC AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRACK THE CENTER
OF MARIE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. AT THIS
POINT, THE MODELS ARE INDICATING MOISTURE INCREASING NEXT WEEKEND
WITH MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I-15 SEEING PWATS RANGING FROM 1.50-2.00".
CURRENTLY, NBM POPS ARE GENERALLY 20-50% FOR MOST AREAS FOR NEXT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT THAT CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE DUE TO THE OVERALL
UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE FINAL TRACK OF MARIE.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THERE IS
RETURNING CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INCREASING IN THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY AROUND 08Z THROUGH 12-13Z, WITH GUST SPEEDS AROUND 20
KTS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING, WITH
GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS. GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED AND
FREQUENCY AFTER SUNSET. FEW AOA 12 KFT EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KDAG WHERE
WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE WEST. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW
AVIATION...SOULAT
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