443
FXUS65 KVEF 020536
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1036 PM PDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRIER, COOLER, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH REGARDS TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM MARIE.
DISCUSSION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DRIER AIR WILL ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST AND PWATS
FALL TO HALF AN INCH OR LESS. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO
SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE PUSHES
THROUGH CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON, THE STRONGEST OF
WHICH WILL PEAK BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK,
MOHAVE, AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW
100S IN VALLEYS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A POTENTIAL MOISTURE SURGE THIS WEEKEND CAUSED BY
THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
GRAVITATING TOWARDS TWO SOLUTIONS, ONE WHICH WOULD TAKE THE STORM
WEST INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, AND ANOTHER WHICH WOULD BRING THE STORM
NORTH TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. EVEN IF THE LOW STAYS OFFSHORE,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO PULL A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
INLAND IF THE TRACK IS FAVORABLE. MODELS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO
THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15 BETWEEN
SATURDAY AND MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CHANGE BASED ON THE
PATH OF THE SYSTEM AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THERE IS
RETURNING CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INCREASING IN THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY AROUND 08Z THROUGH 12-13Z, WITH GUST SPEEDS AROUND 20
KTS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING, WITH
GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS. GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED AND
FREQUENCY AFTER SUNSET. FEW AOA 12 KFT EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MID-MORNING
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KDAG WHERE
WINDS WILL GUST FROM THE WEST. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...SOULAT
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