700
FXUS65 KVEF 032003
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
100 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* DRIER, COOLER, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
* RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AS
MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD
* DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LABOR DAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN US WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
LAS VEGAS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE MID-90S. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, IT DOES LOOK LIKE MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS GENERALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 30 TO 40 MPH,
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH NOT EXPECTED AND WIND ADVISORIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOWER WIND THRESHOLD ON AREA
LAKES, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH LAKE MEAD AND
LAKE MOHAVE FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED, AND WITH THE
START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE USED.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH PWATS
GENERALLY RANGING LESS THAN 0.50" ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER, THE
LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE 1.00" PWAT
CONTOUR IS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND INTO SOUTHERN
LINCOLN, CLARK, AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES BY SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH THE 1.50" LINE EXTENDING UP THE COLORADO RIVER. AN
ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWEST
ARIZONA MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, STRETCHING INTO CLARK,
EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, SOUTHERN LINCOLN, AND MOHAVE COUNTIES BY
SUNDAY. OVERALL, INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL AND THIS COULD
END UP BEING MORE OF A STRATIFORM TYPE RAIN WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER. MORE SUN, COULD
CERTAINLY LEAD TO MORE CONVECTION.
LOOKING TOWARD NEXT WEEK, LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR
FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO SOMEWHAT REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK, HOWEVER THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE UPPER JET COULD RETREAT
NORTHWARD AS RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD FROM NEW MEXICO WESTWARD INTO
THE MOJAVE DESERT. WHILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MUCH DRIER THAN
SUNDAY, WATCHING FOR SIGNALS THAT A MONSOONAL PATTERN MAY BE TRYING
TO SET UP AGAIN GOING INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. LOWER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN THE OVERALL DETAILS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING
IN A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF MONSOON ACTIVITY RETURNING, WHICH IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN CPC'S 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK. CPC 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK SHOWS NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR A PATTERN SUPPORTIVE OF EITHER
ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOCALLY AS RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
HEAT REMAIN TO THE EAST; HOWEVER IF THE MONSOON RIDGE DOES IN FACT
BUILD WESTWARD LATER NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO WARM BACK TO
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, STRONGEST DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS LIKELY (90%). CHANCES OF
REACHING 35+ KNOTS IS ~10%. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 100F.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS 20-30 KNOTS LIKELY (80%
CHANCE) IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER AT NIGHT, BUT
ELEVATED BREEZES MAY LINGER IN SPOTS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...GORELOW/MOORE
AVIATION...WOODS
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