915
FXUS65 KVEF 052048
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
148 PM PDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT
ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD.
* DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY, THOUGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN INVOLVES A MOISTURE SURGE FROM
HURRICANE MARIE, CURRENTLY LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM
INTO THE REGION, BRINGING PWATS INTO THE 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. THE
APPROACH OF A 500 MB PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW PATTERN SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF PRECIPITATION STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH COULD BRING MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
TO OTHERWISE DRY AREAS. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE EARLY MORNING
TIMING OF THE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW
PERPENDICULAR TO CERTAIN MOUNTAIN RANGES IS AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
OVER HIGH TERRAIN. ON THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, THERE IS A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OR GREATER OF ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER 24 HOURS OVER
8,000 FEET IN ELEVATION AND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TWO INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION. TOTALS IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY WILL BE FAR LIGHTER,
BUT THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST ONE QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS. ROADWAY PONDING AND RUNNING WASHES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON LABOR DAY AS HEIGHTS
ALOFT START TO INCREASE AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
AND MOVE WEST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS IS ABLE TO DRAW INTO THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES, FROM BOTH TROPICAL SYSTEMS AND TRADITIONAL
MONSOONAL SOURCES. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUD COVER, BUT RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD GENERALLY SEND
HIGHS BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AFTER SUNSET.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWER CHANCES
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 12Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 15Z WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SEEING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM 15Z THROUGH 01Z.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10KFT, BUT COULD DROP TO AROUND
4KFT AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 100F THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN
20 AND 30 KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KDAG GUSTING FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AFTER 12Z FOR THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES, KDAG, AND LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF
SITES, BUT AS THIS RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTH, IT WILL MAINLY IMPACT
KDAG, KDRA, AND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY TAF SITES AFTER 15Z. CIGS
GENERALLY AROUND 10KFT, BUT MAY LOWER BETWEEN 4-6KFT WITH SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...GORELOW
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