411
FXUS65 KVEF 061930
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1230 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES ALONG THE I-15 AND I-40 CORRIDORS THIS AFTERNOON.
* DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
OUR BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS SET UP ALONG THE I-15 AND I-
40 CORRIDORS. RAIN RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND 0.10" PER HOUR
OR LESS, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM A TRACE
TO 0.33" AS OF 1230PM. HAVE SEEN ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO
FAR, WITH BEST ODDS OF ADDITIONAL STRIKES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP BAND. BARRING ANY MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
ANTICIPATING RAINFALL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WANE THIS EVENING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE VALUES ON THE HIGHER END LIKELY BEING
"MIDNIGHT HIGHS".
AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD TOMORROW, WE LOSE THE FORCING
AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE THAT HELPED PRODUCE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
TODAY. WE'LL STILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND, BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK, PROMOTING A WARMING TREND THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BY THAT TIME, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR HIGHS 3-7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH VALUES ECLIPSING THE CENTURY MARK OVER
MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS MODEST
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, ALLOWING LOW (LESS THAN 30%)
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW NEXT
WEEKEND SHOULD SCOUR MOISTURE OUT AND BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE TIMEFRAME OF
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL IS 18Z TO 22Z, DURING
WHICH REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5 MILES AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS 5KFT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET AS THE RAIN
BAND EXITS THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME LESS GUSTY AFTER SUNSET
AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 15. CEILINGS TO AROUND
5KFT AND REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AT KDAG AND AT LAS
VEGAS VALLEY TERMINALS. THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT KEED AND KIFP THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE
WINDS DO NOT MATERIALIZE, EXPECT LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
INSTEAD. LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES RETURN THIS EVENING AS THE
RAIN BAND MOVES OUT
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...MELTZER
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